Lib Dems Backed For By Election Glory

The Liberal Democrats have been backed to win both of next week's by-elections with William Hill, who have slashed their odds from 5/1 to 3/1 to win the Ealing-Southall by-election; and from 33/1 to 16/1 to win in Sedgefield.

"The Lib Dems traditionally fare well in by-elections and as ninety per cent of the money we have taken for these two is being placed on that Party there is clearly an expectation that Sir Menzies Campbell's leadership could be in for a boost next Thursday" said William Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Casino Times

Latest from William Hill
Sedgefield
Labour Party 1/100 (from 1/200)
Liberal Democrat Party 16/1 (from 33/1)
Conservative Party 25/1

Ealing Southall
Labour Party 4/5 (from 8/13)
Conservative Party 2/1 (from 15/8)
Liberal Democrat Party 3/1 (from 5/1)

There is more on by-election betting at Politicalbetting.com who have the following comments on the likely effects of the results from Sedgefield and Ealing Southall:

The Betfair betting exchange has opened five new political markets as part of its desire to increase the range of options available to punters.

That there should be betting on the two by elections is no surprise but it’s good that the firm has wasted little time in setting them up. Even though Labour starts from extraordinarily strong positions in both seats, as the general election figures show, by elections can and do spring surprises.

The excellent By-elections blog is now running regular news service on the contests with regular updates on what’s happening.

The other Betfair markets are on the exit dates for Brown, Campbell, and Cameron with options based on three month segments running through to January 2011 onwards. Early interest will focus, surely, on Ming Campbell who was the subject of press speculation at the weekend.

The Indy this morning reports that Campbell “….called yesterday on his detractors in the party to “have the guts” to tell him he should go, and rejected the anonymous whispering campaign against him. Dismissing attempts by some colleagues to turn a potential failure to win two by-elections on 19 July into a resignation issue, he tried to reassert his authority with a reshuffle.”

The term that is being used to define the markets is the one that we saw in the old Blair exit date one - “..When will Menzies Campbell officially cease to be leader of the Liberal Democrats? “. Betfair has consulted me about this and it’s hard to find a better form of words that cover all foreseeable circumstances.

My guess is that his party will do well enough on July 19th to ease the pressure and that whenever Campbell goes it will be on his time-table. In all these exit markets leaders are usually pretty resilient and go on longer than expected.

Also see Politicalbetting.com